Lok Sabha Election Results Analysis Live Updates: Why Chandrababu Naidu, Nitish Kumar could be kingmakers (2024)

Since the 2014 general election, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has been more symbol than substance, given the fact that the BJP under Prime Minister Narendra Modi enjoyed a comfortable single-party majority in both 2014 and 2019. The 2024 Lok Sabha election results have brought the salience of the NDA centrestage once more.

The question is: what will be the pound of flesh they each demand?

From TDP and JD(U) to LJP (Ram Vilas) and split NCPs and Sena, Aakash Joshi takes a look at the parties BJP will have to bank on to form the government.

After the results are announced and the Election Commission hands over the list of newly-elected MPs to President Droupadi Murmu, the President will call the single largest party to prove that it enjoys the support of a majority of MPs.

Before that, each winning candidate will be handed over a certificate of election by the Returning Officer of the constituency. The candidate will be asked to sign an acknowledgement of receipt of the certificate, which will then be immediately sent by registered post to the Secretary General of the Lok Sasbha, as per EC’s guidelines. Read our explainer.

The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and its allies, the JanaSena Party (JSP) of Pawan Kalyan and BJP, are headed for a landslide in Andhra Pradesh, in what is a complete reversal of the 2019 results.

This is quite a turnaround for the TDP-led alliance, which was almost written off months before the elections after its chief N Chandrababu Naidu’s arrest. Read Sreenivas Janyala's analysis.

As the INDIA bloc managed to halt the BJP’s march towards majority, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi came out to hit out at the BJP, saying that the mandate today was a clear indication that the people of the country do not want to PM Modi and Amit Shah to run the country.

“This was a fight to save the Constitution of the country and has emerged victorious in it," Rahul said.

With the BJP likely to fall behind the majority mark, the formation of a new Narendra Modi government will now depend on the support of two veteran kingmakers — the Telugu Desam Party or TDP’s Chandrababu Naidu and Janata Dal (United) or JD(U)’s Nitish Kumar, both partners of the BJP in the NDA.

If the BJP remains below the majority 272 mark, (it is currently at 243), Naidu and Nitish could be the men who would prop up Narendra Modi in New Delhi. Read a short history by Deeptiman Tiwary of these two leaders and their remarkable political trajectories over the years.

The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is leading in 14 out of 20 seats in Kerala, indicating that the coalition is set for one of the best-ever electoral performances in Kerala.

In Thrissur, BJP’s Suresh Gopi is set for a victory with a 74,000-odd lead while the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) is leading in Attingal and Alathur.

A major factor that worked in favour of the UDF was the resentment against the eight-year-old regime of the Pinarayi Vijayan-led Left Front government.

An early analysis of the outcome shows that Congress managed to retain the minority votes of Muslims and Christians in the state, which had gone to the LDF in the Assembly elections of 2021. Read Shaju Philip's analysis.

The BJP on its own is falling short of the majority mark of 272. It is currently leading on 234 seats and has won eight, according to the Election Commission, reducing its 2019 tally, when it won 303 seats.

The NDA, meanwhile, is leading in 291 seats.

Liz Mathew speaks about Vikramaditya Singh's prospects: "The Hindutva factor has played a part in other states but not Himachal. Viramaditya Singh is slightly different from others. He was one of the leaders who did a lot of rituals during pranprathistha (of Ram Temple) and people expected him to do well, but the gap, which is now huge, looks like will remain. Ranaut will always remain with the Narendra Modi sena. So, we will see what kind of performance she will give to BJP in terms of improving its image and acceptance in Himachal in the coming days."

Kangana Ranaut is currently leading with over 72,000 votes in Mandi.

Lallu Singh, the incumbent Faizabad MP from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) conceded defeat to the Samajwadi Party candidate Awadhesh Prasad, saying “Hum aapka samman nahi bacha paaye (we could not save your respect).” This is significant, as Faizabad constituency covers Ayodhya and the Ram Temple was a major poll plank for the BJP.

Follow latest updates from Uttar Pradesh.

Behind the remarkable turnaround for the Opposition Samajwadi Party (SP) and Congress in Uttar Pradesh where the INDIA bloc is leading in 45 of the total 80 Lok Sabha seats, some fascinating factors may have given them an upper hand over the BJP.

One of the factors that may have worked in favour of the SP, which is leading in 37 seats, is its ticket-distribution strategy. Unlike previous elections, the SP ticket distribution focused on non-Yadav OBCs.

Also, the SP changed candidates in several constituencies, depending on feedback from local cadre and local caste equation.

Meanwhile, Congress general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, who campaigned intensively in Rae Bareli and Amethi constituencies, didn’t hold many big rallies. Instead, she held over 20 nukkad sabhas daily, from morning to late evening. Read Asad Rehman's analysis.

Senior Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has clinched victory in Rae Bareli with a margin of 4 lakh votes.Rae Bareli has been a Congress fiefdom since 1980s. Rahul's mother Sonia Gandhi has represented the seat thrice.

This time, in a pitch to voters, Sonia declared, "Main aapko apna beta saup rahi hoon (I am handing over my son to you)".

The BJP-JD(S) coalition had fielded sitting MP Prajwal Revanna, accused of rape and sexual assault as its candidate against Congress's Shreyas Patel. Congress won by a margin of around 44,000 votes.

Since 1991, JD(S) had won the segment seven of the eight times. The last time the Congress won was in 1999, when G Puttaswamy Gowda - grandfather of Patel - had defeated former PM Deve Gowda.

Deve Gowda had represented the constituency five times and ceded his seat to Prajwal Revanna in 2019. Videos of alleged sexual assault by the MP was leaked a week ahead of polling in the constituency on April 26, which is said to have affected Prajwal's re-election prospects.

Though Prajwal lost, other members of Deve Gowda family are set to win the polls as both former CM H D Kumaraswamy -- contesting from Mandya on a JD(S) ticket -- and son-in-law of Gowda Dr C N Manjunath - contesting on a BJP ticket from Bangalore Rural -- have secured a comfortable lead.

Dr Jitendra Singh, who is currently leading in Jammu and Kashmir's Udhampur, is known as a strong votary of the abrogation of Article 370 that granted special status to J&K.

A well-known doctor in Jammu, Singh joined BJP in 2012. His rise in the party was fast and soon he became a member of its national executive and also chief spokesperson for the party’s state unit.

Hailing from Malhori village in Doda, Jitendra belongs to a prominent family of the state. His father Rajinder Singh retired as Chief Engineer while his youngest brother Devender Singh Rana had been adviser to CM Omar Abdullah before becoming provincial president of the NC in Jammu region. Devender Rana is, at present, in BJP.

Though many complain about little communication between Dr Jitendra Singh and people of his constituency, even his political detractors agree that the constituency has seen unprecedented development during the last ten years.

In this context, official figures reveal that Udhampur parliamentary constituency is the only area in the country to have three Centrally funded medical colleges which were inaugurated and made functional only after 2014.

This is apart from a number of big road and tunnel projects undertaken in the constituency including world’s highest railway bridge in Reasi and the longest Chenani to Nashri road tunnel.

Not only this, the constituency got the North India’s first cable stayed bridge over Ravi and also a National Highway from Lakhanpur-Bani-Basohli-Doda via Chattargala Tunnel. -- Arun Sharma reports

Ever since the first Lok Sabha elections were held in Udhampur parliamentary constituency in 1957, only the veteran Congress leader Dr Karan Singh, former Sadar-i-Riyast and son of last Dogra ruler of the erstwhile state Maharaja Hari Singh, and a senior BJP leader, Prof Chaman Lal Gupta, have the distinction of getting elected from the area thrice in a row.

While the former had won the parliamentary election in the area in 1971, 1977 and 1980, the latter was declared elected from there in 1996, 1998 and 1999.

According to the Election Commission, as of 1.25 pm, the BJP was leading in 242 seats, while the Congress party was leading 95, almost doubling its 2019 tally.

The interesting story this election is that of the Samajwadi Party, which is currently leading in 36 seats. In 2019, it had only won five seats. The Trinamool Congress is holding strong with leads in 31 seats.

During the seat division, Sangli constituency had become the bone of contention between alliance partners -- Shiv Sena (UBT) and Congress.

The Shiv Sena (UBT) led by Uddhav Thackeray had made it a prestige issue and refused to concede the constituency to Congress. The Shiv Sena (UBT) fielded Chandrahar Patil as the official Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) candidate.The district Congress leaders refused to accept Shiv Sena (UBT) candidate and protested. The state Congress leaders took up the matter with the central party leadership in vain. The ugly war of words between Shiv Sena (UBT) and Congress continued throughout the elections over
Sangli seat.

The Sangli seat saw a triangular contest between – BJP's sitting MP Sanjaykaka Patil, Shiv Sena (UBT) Chandrahar Patil and Congress rebel-turned-Independent Vishal Patil.

With Vishal Patil leading the election in sugar belt Sangli, it is a setback to both Shiv Sena (UBT) and BJP. The BJP's Sanjaykaka Patil had won the elections from Sangli in 2014 and 2019 polls. In the last elections, Sanjaykaka Patil had defeated Vishal Patil. -- Shubhangi Khapre reports

The fight continues to be very close between Tewari and Tandon is just 10,000 votes only.By the seventh round, Manish Tewari had secured 1,04,521 votes, while Tandon has secured 94,036 votes.

BJP supporters at the counting centre of the CCET college in Sector 26, however, told The Indian Express, "We are very hopeful of our candidate winning and many other rounds are left."

The Samajwadi Party is currently leading in 36 seats in Uttar Pradesh, while the BJP has the second-highest number of leads with 33 seats. Congress, too, is leading in seven seats.

But what has helped the Samajwadi Party? The M-Y and PDA factor.

Confident of retaining its core Muslim-Yadav voter base and seeking to make inroads into the votes of non-Yadav OBCs, who were seen to be consolidated in favour of the BJP, the SP fielded only five candidates from the Yadav community in its 62 seats.

Akhilesh also placed his bets on the backward people, Dalits and minorities, who he said would unitedly back the SP’s PDA plank, due to which the BJP’s “equations and previous formulas” would fail this time.

At his public meetings, Akhilesh also repeatedly demanded a caste census, maintaining that a caste survey in UP would ensure communities’ equitable share in reservation and government schemes for their development and welfare based on their proportion in the population. We decode.

In key Baramati seat, Supriya Sule has slowly accumulated significant leads with her sister-in-law trailing her by 25,800 votes at the end of 5th round.

She has been consistently getting marginal advantage from Baramati, Purandar, Indapur, and Daund assembly constituencies. She has got significant leads from Bhor assembly constituency. Sunetra has been able to get the lead in Khadakwasla - a constituency which forms parts of Pune city outskirts - but that has not been able to cut the leads Sule is getting elsewhere. -- Ajay Khape reports

The Jagan Mohan Reddy-led YSR Congress (YSRCP) is seemingly biting the dust in the Lok Sabha polls with leads only in 4 of the 25 seats.

Three of the seats – Araku, Rajampet and Tirupati – were contested by the BJP. The only other seat where the ruling party is in the lead is the YSR family bastion of Kadapa, where Y S Avinash Reddy is leading cousin Y S Sharmila of the Congress by over 25,000 votes.

The TDP-JSP-BJP combine is headed for a sweep in the Andhra Pradesh Assembly elections with leads in over 150 constituencies.

Only one of the five deputy CMs – YSRCP's Rajanna Dora from Salur – was in the lead with most ministers except Peddireddy Ramachandra Reddy trailing. The YSRCP was banking on its welfare schemes and hoping the rural segments and women would vote in their favour but that does not seem to be translating into votes.

The TDP alone has managed leads in 127 Assembly segments, way above the 88 required for majority. Adding to its kitty is the 18 of the Jana Sena and the BJP’s seven. On the other hand, the YSRCP, which had swept the polls in 2019 winning 152 seats, has the lead only in 21 seats, according to the Election Commission. -- Pushkar Banakar reports

The BJP-backed Naga People's Front has a comfortable lead against the Congress in the Naga and Kuki-Zomi tribal majority Outer Manipur seat but in the Inner Manipur seat, which largely covers the Meitei-majority valley region of the conflict hit state, it is the Congress which has taken the lead.

The Congress's candidate is outspoken JNU teacher A. Bimol Akoijam, who is making his political debut. His entry into politics has largely been prompted by the ongoing strife in the state. His campaign has largely been pointed against the handling of the conflict in the state by the BJP-led governments in the state and at the centre.

The BJP's candidate is Th. Basanta Kumar Singh, who is a minister in Biren Singh's state cabinet. Akoijam's campaign was largely a mobilization of the widespread discontent against the handling of the conflict, in which lives continue to be lost and over 50,000 continue to be displaced.

The BJP's campaign had emphasized on some steps taken by it which it pitched as being long-term solutions to unrest in the state such as the central government's decision to fence the Indo-Myanmar border and to do away the Free Movement Regime with Myanmar. Akoijam has been accusing the BJP of exacerbating divisions in the state. -- Sukrita Baruah reports

Suresh Gopi is leading in Kerala's Thrissur and is the only BJP candidate to do so.

He campaigned with the slogan "a Union Minister for Thrissur, Modi’s guarantee’’. Gopi who had contested in 2019, has been focusing on the constituency over the last one year and the party’s prospects in this constituency are being built, day by day, on the promise that he would be a minister in the next NDA regime in Delhi.

This was also one of the few seats where BJP tried to combine Hindu and Christian vote banks. Gopi’s popularity as a star also seemed to have helped him to emerge a front runner at this stage in the counting.

But the contest in Thrissur was under the shadow of allegations of nexus between CPI(M) and BJP. CPI(M) district leadership in Thrissur has been under the scanner of central agencies in connection with financial irregularities and black money parked in party controlled cooperative banks and other bank accounts.

During the campaigning, Congress had alleged that there is a secret understanding between CPI(M) and BJP to trade votes in Thrissur for settling the probe by ED and Income Tax Department against CPI(M) leaders.

The allegation had got a new twist on the eve of polling on April 26 in the wake of the revelation of a power broker T G Nandakumar that BJP kerala in charge Prakash Javadekar had promised to “settle” the SNC Lavalin, in which a CBI appeal against the discharge of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and others is pending in the Supreme Court case in lieu of the Left support for the BJP in a few Lok Sabha seats in Kerala. Nandakumar had alleged that he had been party to discussions between CPI(M) central committee member E P Jayarajan and Javadekar.

If Gopi wins Thrissur, pushing Congres to third position, the issue would trigger a fresh controversy over the allegations of vote trading between CPI(M) and BJP, which Congress had kept alive during the campaigning.

In 2019, Gopi finished third, behind the Congress and CPI candidates, but got an impressive 2.93 lakh votes. Now, Thrissur is one of the constituencies in Kerala where BJP is betting on to win, on the strength of Gopi’s popularity, the Hindu votes, and its own efforts in the state towards wooing the Christian community, which forms around 21% of the electorate. -- Shaju Philip reports

Three hours into counting of votes in Kerala, BJP’s Suresh Gopi in Thrissur has gained a clear lead over his rivals LDF’s V S Sunil Kumar and Congress’ K Muraleedharan.

Gopi is leading by over 25,000 votes at 10.45 am. BJP has never won a Lok Sabha seat in Kerala and if Gopi breaks that jinx, he along with the party state unit would create a major history in the state’s electoral politics with far reaching consequences across the state’s political spectrum.

That will also show that Thrissur will buck the trend in 2024 when the entire state stood with Congress or Left, both part of the INDIA bloc at the national level. -- Shaju Philip reports

Parshottam Rupala, the 69-year-old veteran is fighting his first direct election in 21 years. He is currently leading in Rajkot.

However, his campaign for the prestigious Rajkot Lok Sabha seat had suffered an early setback after Kshatriya community objected to his remarks at a Dalit event that foreign rulers, including Britishers did all they could to persecute India and that even raja-maharajas (kings) bowed down to them and sought friendly ties with them by breaking bread with them and giving their daughters in marriage.

While Rupala subsequently apologised by releasing a video statement and also from public forums, Kshatriyas had alleged that the comments betrayed Rupala’s views on Kshatriya community in general and women of that community in particular and had demanded that he withdraw from the poll race. When he didn’t, protesting Khshtriyas had demanded that the ruling BJP cancel his election ticket.

When the saffron party didn’t budge, Kshatriyas had given a call to defeat Rupala and BJP in Gujarat. They took out dharma rath yatras, held sammelans and disrupted election campaign meetings of BJP leaders, including Rupala’s as well as Union Health and Family Welfare Minister Mansukh Mandaviya. The continued protests had forced Gujarat BJP president CR Paatil to appeal to Kshatriyas to forgive Rupala and vote for the BJP.

The fury of protests notwithstanding, the early trends of counting of votes suggested that Kshatriyas didn’t have enough numbers and that their agitation against Rupala and BJP didn’t strike a cord with voters haling from other communities. -- Gopal Kateshiya reports

Once a leading figure in protests against paper leaks in the state, Boddy Panwar challenged the BJP's incumbent Mala Rajya Laxmi Shah, the titular queen of the former Garhwal kingdom, in the initial vote count. Panwar, as stated in his manifesto, focused his campaign on employment, the Lokayukta, the Old Pension Scheme (OPS), and citizens' rights to education, health, water, and electricity. He also promised to reconsider the Agniveer Yojana.

As reported earlier by The Indian Express, current trends in the state suggest that despite the discussion around the Agnipath scheme, the BJP remains the clear choice for voters in the hill state. -- Avaneesh Mishra writes

For the third consecutive term, the BJP is heading towards a near sweep in Uttarakhand where the party is leading on all five seats. Both in 2014 and 2019, the BJP won all five seats.

As per the latest trends, the BJP has secured a safe lead on all the seats.

On the Nainital – Udham Singh Nagar seat BJP’s sitting MP Ajay Bhatt is leading with over 1.51 lakh votes against Congress candidate Prakash Joshi. On the Almora seat sitting BJP MP Ajay Tamta has a lead of over 69,000 votes on Congress’ Pradeep Tamta.

BJP’s Anil Baluni has a lead of over 35,000 votes against Congress former state president Ganesh Godiyal on the Garhwal seat. In Tehri Garhwal, BJP incumbent MP Mala Rajya Laxmi Shah leads with over 35,000 votes. While on all other four seats, the respective

Congress candidates are on the second position, on the Tehri seat Independent candidate Bobby Panwar is trailing Shah. Congress candidate Jot Singh Gunsola is in the third position as of now.

In Haridwar, former CM Trivendra Singh Rawat is leading against Congress former CM Harish Rawat’s son Virendra Rawat by over 26,000 votes. -- Avaneesh Mishra writes

For NDA allies, the only respite is seen so far in initial rounds is in Bijnor, where RLD is leading, while SBSP and NISHAD Party struggle for a lead in Ghosi and Sant Kabir Nagar, where sons of Om Prakash Rajbhar and Sanjay Nishad are contesting.

Even in Varanasi where PM Narendra Modi consistently maintained lead from Samajwadi Party candidate in 2019 trailed the Congress candidate Ajay Rai at times. He is currently leading.

This election seems to be giving an edge to Bheem Army chief Chandrashekhar Azad, who is consistently leading from others in Nagina seat.

The worst performance in last five elections is from BSP which is seen on fourth place in more than 80 percent seats. -- Bhupendra Pandey reports

The Samajwadi Party fielded five candidates from the Yadav community in the 62 seats it is contesting in Uttar Pradesh in the Lok Sabha elections. Interestingly, all five are from party founder Mulayam Singh Yadav’s family.

Take a look at how the Yadavs of SP are performing:

Kannauj: Akhilesh Yadav leading by 32231 votes against BJP sitting MP Subrat Pathak

Mainpuri: Dimple Yadav by margin of 34051 votes against BJP Minister Jaiveer Singh

Firozabad: Akshay Yadav by margin of 3885 votes against Vishwadeep Singh of BJP

Azamgarh: Akhilesh’s cousin Dharmendra Yadav is contesting against sitting MP Dinesh Lal Nirahua of BJP. Dharmendra is leading by a narrow margin of 6294 votes.

Badaun: Shivpal Yadav’s son Aditya Yadav is contesting polls, he is leading by a narrow margin of mere 51 votes against BJP candidate Durvijay Singh Shakya

-- Maulshree Seth reports

The main Opposition, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), had formed an alliance with Jana Sena Party (JSP) and BJP ahead of the Lok Sabha polls.

The NDA comprising TDP, JSP and BJP, established slender leads in Assembly elections.

The TDP was nowhere in the picture till a year before the election, and was struggling to retain its diminishing political space. It changed a bit after N Chandrababu Naidu was arrested on September 9 last year by the AP CID in connection with an alleged scam in the AP Skill Development Corporation that occurred during the TDP’s regime from 20014 to 2019.

He was granted interim bail on October 31, 53 days later, and on November 20 the HC granted him regular bail. Not only did it garner sympathy for the former CM but it also galvanised actor turned politician and chief of JSP, K Pawan Kalyan, to declare his support and an electoral tie-up with TDP.

Naidu and Kalyan then negotiated with the BJP to join the alliance which it did in March just two months before the elections. The TDP-JSP-BJP (NDA) contested on the platform that Jagan had ruined the state with the cash heavy welfare schemes and had driven the state into debts. The issues of the state not having a proper capital city, lack of development or industrial investments, and unemployment were also issues that TDP and JSP raised.

While PM Narendra Modi was trailing in Varanasi in very early trends, he's back in the lead with 691 votes over Congress's Ajay Rai.

Meanwhile, Rahul Gandhi was leading in Rae Bareli, a Congress bastion, by 16,000 votes, and in Wayanad, where he's the sitting MP, by over 21,000 votes.

In Baramati, Supriya Sule of NCP (SP) was leading by 11,532 votes after the end of second round, against NCP's Sunetra Pawar.

Congress's Shashi Tharoor and BJP's Rajeev Chandrasekhar are locked in a tight race in Thiruvananthapuram, with Tharoor leading with 572 votes.

Half of Congress’s leads in Rajasthan, where it looks set to end its drought, were with Jat candidates. As per early trends, Rahul Kaswan was leading in Churu, Hanuman Beniwal in Nagaur, Brijendra Ola in Jhunjhunu, Ummeda Ram in Barmer – all are Jats and bar Barmer, were contesting against a Jat candidate.

Unlike 2014 and 2019, the Congress party had also allied on three seats: Rashtriya Loktantrik Party in Nagaur, CPM in Sikar, and Bharat Adivasi Party (BAP) in Banswara; and was leading in all three. -- Hamza Khan reports

The Congress party on Tuesday looks set to end its ten-year-old dry run in Rajasthan, where it lost all 25 seats to BJP and NDA in 2014 and 2019, respectively.

As per early trends, the Congress and INDI Alliance was leading in 11 of the state's 25 seats.

While BJP was banking on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s hold over voters, Ram Temple, removal of Article 370 from Jammu and Kashmir, etc. and a perception about India’s “powerful” image abroad, apart from consolidating its power through inductions of leaders from other parties, the Congress was relying on anger towards BJP amongst Jats, anti-incumbency and coalitions to make a dent into BJP’s aim to win all 25 seats from the state for the third time.

The Congress also seems to have gained in Rajasthan from early voting phases, when there was perhaps saturation with the BJP and PM Modi. All 25 Rajasthan seats had voted in the first two phases of the long election. Perhaps sensing a churn, PM Modi had led his party’s offensive, from Rajasthan no less, through his controversial statements in Banswara and Tonk – Sawai Madhopur Lok Sabha seats. These statements were made after the polling for the first round had been completed and the second round was awaited. -- Hamza Khan reports

Regional parties on the rise – which are not affiliated to either the NDA or the INDIA national alliances – are having their moment in the sun in the Northeastern states.

The Shillong Lok Sabha seat in Meghalaya – one of two seats in the state – with its largely Khasi and Jaintia population is seeing an interesting scenario playing out with the emergent Voice of People’s Party currently leading by a margin of more than 37,000 votes against incumbent Vincent Pala from the Congress. Pala has held this seat for three consecutive terms whereas the VPP – which has Ricky Syngkon as its candidate – made its electoral debut in last year’s Meghalaya state assembly election. The party had contested in only 12 out of 60 seats, but made waves by winning four of these seats.

The other major contender for this seat is Ampareen Lyngdog, an experienced legislator at the state level and current Meghlaya state minister with the ruling National People’s Party in the state. -- Sukrita Baruah reports

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is currently trailing by 6,223 votes in the Varanasi Lok Sabha constituency. However, it must be noted that this is based on very early trends.

PM Modi is up against Congress state chief Ajay Rai. Interestingly, Rai began his career as a ‘karyakarta’ of the Hindu nationalist outfit Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), following which he was made the convener of BJP’s student wing Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP). Rai entered the Congress in 2012.

Follow latest updates from Uttar Pradesh here.

INDIA bloc was leading in over 200 seats as of 9.15 am, according to early trends. This is significant as most exit polls predicted figures less than 200 for the Opposition alliance.

However, it must be noted that the numbers are based on postal ballot votes.

For the INDIA bloc, these Lok Sabha elections are test of the alliance. While it may stop short of forming a government, it hopes to upset the NDA's tally and form a strong Opposition in Parliament. If party leaders are to believed, the INDIA bloc may just defy exit polls and form the government with "295 seats".

The results will also signal the alliance's performance in Assembly polls later this year.

Counting of postal ballots gave an early lead to the BJP-led NDA in 26 seats, while INDIA bloc is ahead in 22 seats. While Union minister Piyush Goyal is leading in Mumbai North, Shiv Sena (UBT)’s Amol Kirtikar is seeing gains in Mumbai North West.

The split of parties coupled with the sharp Maratha versus OBC polarisation will be decisive as far as the BJP’s performance goes. The polls will answer who the 'real' Shiv Sena and NCP are, after the split in parties, leading upto the polls.

Meanwhile, all eyes will be on the Marathwada region, where the Maratha agitation led by activist Manoj Jarange-Patil was the most intense. Read latest updates updates from Maharashtra here.