Coming off a perfect 3-0 record yesterday, let's run it back with the underdog Red Sox, the favored Twins and a pitching duel in Chi-Town.
Play 1: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox – Red Sox Moneyline (+114) FanDuel
Bosox starting pitcher Brayan Bello cannot get left-handed batters out. Lefties are toasting him to the tune of a .240 ISO and .378 wOBA this year. And this isn't a fluke; last year those numbers were .209 and .382, respectively.
For sake of comparison, it's as if Jose Ramirez of the Guardians is every lefty Bello faces.
But Wednesday night in Toronto, Bello won't be facing Jose Ramirez. In fact, from the left-hand side of the plate, he'll probably be facing Spencer Horwitz and Daulton Varsho. Maybe Addison Barger. And that's probably it.
Meanwhile, when facing righties, Bello is pretty much awesome. A .114 ISO, 56% groundballs, a tiny 5% barrel rate.
So yeah: We like Bello tonight.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox will be facing an objectively better pitcher in Kevin Gausman, but he too struggles against lefties, giving up a .211 ISO and .366 wOBA, along with a 10% barrel rate.
But he'll be facing Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, and Emmanuel Valdez, all lefties with ISOs above .219 over the last two seasons against righties. Plus lefties David Hamilton, Dominic Smith, and Masataka Yoshida. Let's not forget righty power hitter Tyler O'Neill.
In short: Gausman has his plate full.
All told, this game's odds seem backwards, and the Red Sox at plus-money is the side to be on.
Play 2: Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays – Twins run line -1.5 (+130) DraftKings
Rays pitcher Taj Bradley has been walking through raindrops so far this year.
His ERA is a respectable 4.23, and his xFIP is all the way down at 3.12. He's striking out nearly 12 batters per nine innings, and he's walking a little more than 7% of the batters he faces.
Based on these numbers, it would seem like Bradley is pitching awesome.
But when batters connect, they connect. Like, really connect, to the tune of a 14.7% barrel rate. If hitters facing Bradley were one person, that barrel rate would rank second in the majors, sandwiched in between Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani.
Predictably, the hard hit rate against Bradley is also in the stratosphere, at 53.7% -- and at 60% against lefties.
In short: If Bradley is getting swings and misses -- which he does at a 14.7% clip -- he's a top pitcher.
But if batters connect ... it's a different story.
And the Twins connect, at least enough. They're middle of the pack in strikeouts against righties, but fifth in ISO and ninth in wOBA, and the first seven batters in their projected lineup all have ISOs above .164 over the last two seasons against righties.
If the Twins can hit the ball tonight, things could get ugly quick for Bradley.
On the other side, the Twins are sending Joe Ryan to the hill, who is once again striking batters out at a 25% clip, hardly walking anyone, and not giving up a lot of hard contact. Boring and predictable.
This game could easily slip into a pitcher's duel, but it could just as easily -- if not more likely -- result in a big Twins win. We're siding with the latter, as the hard hits and barrels are bound to catch up with Bradley eventually.
Play 3: Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros – Under 7.5 (-120) ESPN BET
This will be a pitcher's duel tonight, at least on paper, with the White Sox sending all-of-a-sudden ace Garrett Crochet to the mound, while the Astros will be sending out all-of-a-sudden ship-righter Hunter Brown.
Starting with Brown: He was hit from pillar to post earlier this year, but the stats didn't back it up. To date: He's given up a ridiculous .326 BABIP on an equally ridiculous 4.8% barrel rate and a crazy-low 37.6% hard hit rate.
Clearly, Brown has had bad luck, but he's turned it around of late, turning in five straight quality starts and not giving up an earned run in his last two turns.
Of course, the White Sox offense is not reminding anyone of the 1927 Yankees -- or, really, any Yankees team in the history of baseball -- so it feels pretty safe to assume Brown will continue pitching at Cy Young-award (not kidding) levels tonight.
As for Crochet? He's striking out 35.7% of batters, walking a mere 5.7%, and when batters connect, they're not exactly ripping the ball, to the tune of an 8% barrel rate.
Crochet is an ace, the Astros' righties are a big ball of meh, and they haven't seen Crochet yet this year.
Add it all together, and the under is the play.
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Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
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