What might happen if the Red Sox land Juan Soto? And what could happen if they don’t? - The Boston Globe (2024)

That’s not to say that the rest of the market is stagnant. Indeed, the first burners of the hot stove are now officially lit.

This week, lefthander Yusei Kikuchi reached a three-year, $63 million agreement with the Angels. And late on Tuesday night, according to major league sources, lefthander Blake Snell agreed to a startling five-year, $182 million deal with the Dodgers. Snell, according to major league sources, was of interest to the Sox — but more as a secondary target rather than a primary one. Soto remains atop the team’s wish list.

In recent days, several industry members opined that Soto’s decision will wait at least until next week — with a resolution by the Winter Meetings (Dec. 8-11 in Dallas) likely.

For the Red Sox, Soto’s decision will have numerous implications for the rest of their offseason.

The Red Sox have remained involved in the Soto sweepstakes, a nod to his nearly unmatched early track record of brilliance. The likelihood is that he signs elsewhere — the field is always a more sensible guess than any single team — but the Sox appear to be shooting their shot.

If the Sox sign Soto, their offseason will be far from done. The primary identified offseason needs are a front-of-the-rotation starter, a rebuilt bullpen, and righthanded balance to the lineup.

Soto wouldn’t accomplish any of those goals. According to sources, the Sox do not view the pursuit of Soto and a front-of-the-rotation starter as an either/or proposition: They’d still be looking to add a top starter even if they land the top player on the market.

That said, signing Soto would use up a chunk of the team’s offseason resources.

But how much? Industry sources said the Sox are expected to raise their payroll at least in the vicinity of next season’s $241 million luxury-tax threshold. CEO/president Sam Kennedy said last week that the Sox are open to spending beyond it.

At the least, the Sox can spend roughly $70 million while staying below the luxury tax and preserving a healthy amount of money for in-season moves. If Soto signs for $47 million per year — pushing his AAV past Shohei Ohtani — that would leave the Sox with $20 million to $25 million before the first luxury-tax threshold.

That line wouldn’t represent a hard cap, but still might influence the rest of the Sox’ offseason moves. With a crowded outfield that included Soto, it would increase the likelihood of a trade of one of their outfielders, with Wilyer Abreu seen as the most likely to move. Meanwhile, the addition of Soto would make it easier for the Sox to commit to having one or more unproven top prospects in the lineup to open the season.

So, in some ways, signing Soto could increase the likelihood that the Sox trade for a top starter such as Garrett Crochet (projected to make just $2.9 million in 2025, according to MLBTradeRumors.com) and commit to Kristian Campbell and/or Roman Anthony as part of the Opening Day roster. Campbell would be the more natural fit because he is righthanded and can play infield.

A caveat: While some in the industry believe Abreu could headline a deal for a frontline starter, others feel that one of the top four prospects would have to be involved. While Abreu is seen as a very good player who would appeal to nearly any team, his platoon profile likely falls below that of a player who could headline a deal for a young, controllable frontline starter.

Only one team will emerge from the Soto sweepstakes with the slugger. So if that team is not the Red Sox, then what?

The Sox would have a lot of money to address more obvious needs, foremost their pitching. And there are indications that the Sox are interested not only in adding one starter but multiple — a pursuit that would become easier if they don’t sign Soto.

The top free agent rotation options — with Snell off the board, lefthander Max Fried is generally seen as the top fit for the Sox, followed by righthander Corbin Burnes — would likely be in play. Crochet and other trade candidates would likewise remain in consideration.

The Sox might also look to add a second starter who was available on a shorter-term deal, joining the long list of suitors for Walker Buehler, Nate Eovaldi, and others. Or, the Sox could repurpose the money they might have spent on Soto to add a frontline free agent starter while aiming high on free agent bullpen additions such as Tanner Scott or Jeff Hoffman.

If the Sox don’t get Soto, the fact that they were interested underscores their ambitions in improving the club. As such, a pivot to a pursuit of infielder Willy Adames (who hit .251/.331/.462 with 32 homers while playing shortstop for the Brewers last season) or Alex Bregman (.260/.315/.453 with 26 homers as the Astros’ Gold Glove-winning third baseman in 2024) would become likelier.

Both have declared a willingness to change positions. As such, they could play second in an infield with third baseman Rafael Devers, shortstop Trevor Story, and first baseman Triston Casas — or, if the Sox elected to more dramatically shake up their roster, one could sign as a third baseman while pushing Devers to a first base/DH timeshare with Casas (assuming Casas wasn’t traded for starting pitching).

The Sox are widely perceived by agents and teams as a wild card, a club that is determined to make significant improvements. Whether he comes to Boston or goes elsewhere, Soto’s decision will play a key role in starting to give form to the rest of what the Sox do in a hot stove season that is expected to be worthy of the name.

Alex Speier can be reached at alex.speier@globe.com. Follow him @alexspeier.