Is the whisky bubble about to burst? Not quite, but the wild ride of the secondary whisky market might be leveling out after a period of intense volatility. According to Noble & Co’s Whisky Intelligence Q3 2025 Report, the market is showing the first glimmers of stabilization after two years of contraction. What does this mean for collectors, investors, and enthusiasts? Let's dive in.
Noble & Co.'s quarterly report identifies the key players in the secondary whisky market as investors, collectors, and flippers. But here's where it gets interesting… Duncan McFadzean points out that for a while there, a fourth type of buyer emerged: the everyday consumer. These were people who simply wanted to drink a specific whisky they couldn't find on store shelves due to high demand and limited supply. Think of it like trying to snag the latest limited-edition sneaker – only it's a rare single malt.
However, McFadzean notes a significant shift: "It is our view that the flipper and the consumer have largely withdrawn from the market in the current climate." This withdrawal is largely due to global economic turbulence, high inflation, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. In essence, the 'get rich quick' crowd and those just seeking a dram have largely stepped back. This leaves the investors, who are being cautious because they don't want to buy something that's decreasing in value - catching a falling knife - and the collectors, who are being more selective.
"However, as we noted in our last report, there are signs of hope with the percentage of unsold lots falling – suggesting auctions are coming into supply and demand balance at lower prices." The key takeaway? While prices have dropped, there's evidence the market is finding a new equilibrium.
Stabilization in the Secondary Market: A Closer Look
The report focuses on the period from April to July 2025, describing it as a time of 'relative consolidation for fine and rare whisky.' After the rollercoaster of a correction in late 2022 and 2023, followed by uneven trading and further declines in 2024, the first half of 2025 suggests the market is settling into 'a new rhythm.' It's like a dance that's finally finding its beat.
Specifically, the secondary market value has decreased by a substantial 40%, plummeting from £8.9 million (US$11.9m) to £5.4m (US$7.15m). Sales volumes also took a hit, dropping by 26% compared to the same period in 2024. And this is the part most people miss: while these numbers sound alarming, the report emphasizes that they are no worse than the rolling 12-month average, suggesting a degree of stabilization. It is not getting worse, which is good news.
In Q1 2025, 12,715 bottles were sold for £3.3m (US$4.41m), averaging £258 (US$477) per lot. Q2 2025 saw an uptick, with 14,725 bottles sold for £4.2m (US$5.61m), raising the average lot value to £286 (US$381). If this trend continues into Q3, the report predicts a clear positive sign that the market has indeed turned a corner. Will it happen? Time will tell, but the data offers a glimmer of optimism.
The Brands Leading the Charge
When it comes to brands dominating the secondary market, The Macallan reigns supreme. From January 2024 to July 2025, this Speyside producer achieved an auction value of over £12m (US$16m). That’s a lot of whisky! Springbank follows, though far behind, at just over £3m (US$4m), with Bowmore trailing closely at approximately £2m (US$2.67m). These are your blue-chip whiskies, the ones that consistently hold value (though even they are subject to market fluctuations).
A handful of 'cult' distilleries – Ardbeg, Glenfarclas, The Balvenie, The Dalmore, Glendronach, Lagavulin, Glenfiddich, Port Ellen, Highland Park, and Brora – round out the top 10. These are the whiskies with dedicated fanbases, driving demand and contributing significantly to the secondary market's activity.
Examining the leaderboard by volume sales from January 2024 to July 2025 reveals a slightly different picture. While The Macallan still leads with nearly 19,000 bottles traded, the gap to Springbank narrows considerably. Springbank traded almost 15,000 bottles, demonstrating its broad appeal despite lower average prices compared to The Macallan. Ardbeg takes a strong third place, with over 5,000 bottles, highlighting the popularity of its special releases and Committee bottlings. Then comes a broad mid-table consisting of Bruichladdich, Glenfiddich, Highland Park, Arran, Glengyle, Bowmore, Lagavulin, The Balvenie, Laphroaig, and Glenfarclas, each contributing thousands of bottles.
While The Macallan dominates auction values, Springbank is a close contender in terms of trading volume. This points to an interesting dynamic: The Macallan is the luxury brand, while Springbank is the workhorse, consistently moving bottles and engaging a wider audience. But here's where it gets controversial: Some might argue that Springbank's high volume, despite lower prices, indicates a potentially more sustainable long-term position in the market compared to The Macallan's reliance on ultra-rare, high-value bottles. What do you think?
Polarization and Trophy Bottles
A key trend is the increasing polarization of the market. On one side, high-volume releases from cult distilleries like Ardbeg and Springbank maintain steady liquidity in the £100–£500 (US$133-$668) range, keeping the market accessible to a wider range of collectors. On the other, prestige and ultra-rare bottles continue to grab headlines, though their prices have softened compared to previous years.
This divergence suggests a maturing secondary market, where enthusiasm for collectible daily-drinkers is offsetting the cooling at the very top end. Several Islay and Highland producers continue to provide meaningful liquidity, even if their average hammer values remain smaller. The report suggests the April–July 2025 auction season was driven by a combination of trophy bottles and collector mainstays.
At the high end, showpiece lots like the Bowmore Arc-54 Iridos Edition and several Macallan Lalique decanters set the benchmark. The Bowmore achieved a hammer price of £112,500 (US$150,204), while The Macallan In Lalique 65YO, 60YO, 55YO, 50YO and 57YO, which hammered in late June 2025, clustered between £39,000 (US$52,070) and £47,000 (US$62,752), setting The Macallan prestige median for the quarter.
However, the data also reveals that some prestige labels – The Macallan in particular – are now trading below the peaks seen earlier in 2025 or the previous year. This indicates a market where enthusiasm for iconic releases remains strong, but buyers are exercising greater price discipline amidst the broader slowdown. And this is the part most people miss: It's not that people don't want these bottles; it's that they are no longer willing to pay exorbitant prices for them.
The report concludes that the data shows a functioning and stabilizing market rather than a re-inflating one. The leaders – The Macallan at scale, Bowmore and The Dalmore on trophy-led share gains, and Springbank on mid-tier resilience – are positioned as expected, but with clearer price discipline from sellers than a year ago.
Key Takeaways for Buyers and Sellers
For sellers of exclusive bottles, the advice is to emphasize provenance, strategically choose auction dates to attract global bidders, and be realistic about guide prices for repeatable prestige decanters. In other words, tell a compelling story, understand your audience, and don't overprice your product.
For buyers, spring 2025 was a market where selectivity paid off, and where the right bottles – long-run series with impeccable back-records – held their value. Do your research, focus on quality, and be patient.
So, is the secondary whisky market truly stabilizing? The Noble & Co. report offers encouraging signs, but caution and informed decision-making remain crucial. Do you think this stabilization will last, or is this just a temporary lull before another period of volatility? What are your predictions for the future of the secondary whisky market? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
